The 2025 Bihar Assembly election exit polls are out, and all major agencies are predicting a massive win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP–JDU alliance, while the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan appears to be falling behind.
As per the combined exit poll data, the NDA is projected to win 130 to 167 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member Bihar Vidhan Sabha. The Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure 70 to 100 seats, indicating a significant drop in its voter base compared to the previous election.
Exit Poll Numbers at a Glance
| Agency | NDA (BJP + JDU) | Mahagathbandhan (RJD + Congress) | Others / JSP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matrize | 147–167 | 70–90 | 5–10 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133–159 | 75–101 | 0–5 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145–160 | 73–91 | 2–4 |
| Chanakya | 160±10 | 80±10 | 3–5 |
The Bihar elections were held in two phases – November 6 and 11, with the second phase recording over 67% voter turnout, one of the highest in the state’s recent history. Analysts believe that this increased participation, especially in rural belts, has worked in favor of the NDA, thanks to Nitish Kumar’s welfare schemes and BJP’s strong campaign machinery.
Mahagathbandhan Struggles to Regain Ground
Despite aggressive campaigning by Tejashwi Yadav and Congress leaders, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan seems to have failed in turning anti-incumbency into votes. Internal seat-sharing issues, weak booth-level coordination, and the rise of new local players like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party may have further divided the opposition’s vote share.
What Experts Say
Political analysts note that the NDA’s strong performance could be credited to Narendra Modi’s popularity, Nitish Kumar’s governance record, and effective caste and booth management strategies.
Meanwhile, the RJD’s focus on unemployment and youth issues may not have resonated widely enough to swing voter sentiment.
What’s Next
The official counting of votes will take place on November 14, and all eyes are now on whether the final results will match the exit-poll predictions.
While exit polls have historically been close to accurate in Bihar, surprises can never be ruled out in Indian politics.
For now, the mood in Patna and Delhi clearly favors the NDA, as it inches closer to another decisive victory in Bihar.
